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Actual gross home product (GDP) elevated at an annual charge of three.2 p.c within the fourth quarter of 2023 (desk 1), in line with the “second” estimate launched by the Bureau of Financial Evaluation. Within the third quarter, actual GDP elevated 4.9 p.c.
The GDP estimate launched right this moment relies on extra full supply information than had been out there for the “advance” estimate issued final month. Within the advance estimate, the rise in actual GDP was 3.3 p.c. The replace primarily mirrored a downward revision to non-public stock funding that was partly offset by upward revisions to state and native authorities spending and shopper spending (confer with “Updates to GDP”).
The rise in actual GDP mirrored will increase in shopper spending, exports, state and native authorities spending, nonresidential mounted funding, federal authorities spending, and residential mounted funding that had been partly offset by a lower in personal stock funding. Imports, that are a subtraction within the calculation of GDP, elevated (desk 2).
In comparison with the third quarter of 2023, the deceleration in actual GDP within the fourth quarter primarily mirrored a downturn in personal stock funding and slowdowns in federal authorities spending, residential mounted funding, and shopper spending. Imports decelerated.
Present‑greenback GDP elevated 4.9 p.c at an annual charge, or $334.5 billion, within the fourth quarter to a degree of $27.94 trillion, an upward revision of $5.8 billion from the earlier estimate (tables 1 and three). Extra info on the supply information that underlie the estimates is obtainable within the “Key Source Data and Assumptions” file on BEA’s web site.
The worth index for gross home purchases elevated 1.9 p.c within the fourth quarter, the identical as within the earlier estimate. The private consumption expenditures (PCE) worth index elevated 1.8 p.c, an upward revision of 0.1 proportion level. Excluding meals and power costs, the PCE worth index elevated 2.1 p.c, an upward revision of 0.1 proportion level.
Private Revenue
Present-dollar private earnings elevated $219.5 billion within the fourth quarter, a downward revision of $5.4 billion from the earlier estimate. The rise primarily mirrored will increase in compensation, private earnings receipts on property, and proprietors’ earnings that had been partly offset by a lower in private present switch receipts (desk 8).
Disposable private earnings elevated $202.5 billion, or 4.0 p.c, within the fourth quarter, a downward revision of $9.2 billion from the earlier estimate. Actual disposable private earnings elevated 2.2 p.c, a downward revision of 0.3 proportion level.
Private saving was $809.2 billion within the fourth quarter, a downward revision of $22.4 billion from the earlier estimate. The private saving charge—private saving as a proportion of disposable private earnings—was 3.9 p.c within the fourth quarter, a downward revision of 0.1 proportion level.
Updates to GDP
With the second estimate, downward revisions to non-public stock funding and federal authorities spending had been partly offset by upward revisions to state and native authorities spending, shopper spending, residential mounted funding, nonresidential mounted funding, and exports. Imports had been revised up. For extra info, confer with the Technical Note. For info on updates to GDP, confer with the “Further Data” part that follows.
Advance Estimate | Second Estimate | |
---|---|---|
(P.c change from previous quarter) | ||
Actual GDP | 3.3 | 3.2 |
Present-dollar GDP | 4.8 | 4.9 |
Actual GDI | … | … |
Common of Actual GDP and Actual GDI | … | … |
Gross home purchases worth index | 1.9 | 1.9 |
PCE worth index | 1.7 | 1.8 |
PCE worth index excluding meals and power | 2.0 | 2.1 |
Updates to Third-Quarter Wages and Salaries
Along with presenting up to date estimates for the fourth quarter, right this moment’s launch presents revised estimates of third-quarter wages and salaries, private taxes, and contributions for presidency social insurance coverage, primarily based on up to date information from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program. Wages and salaries are actually estimated to have elevated $184.2 billion within the third quarter, an upward revision of $23.0 billion. Private present taxes are actually estimated to have elevated $61.5 billion, an upward revision of $8.9 billion. Contributions for presidency social insurance coverage are actually estimated to have elevated $23.2 billion, an upward revision of $3.0 billion. With the incorporation of those new information, actual gross home earnings is now estimated to have elevated 1.9 p.c within the third quarter, an upward revision of 0.4 proportion level from the beforehand printed estimate.
GDP for 2023
Actual GDP elevated 2.5 p.c in 2023 (from the 2022 annual degree to the 2023 annual degree), in contrast with a rise of 1.9 p.c in 2022 (desk 1). The rise in actual GDP in 2023 primarily mirrored will increase in shopper spending, nonresidential mounted funding, state and native authorities spending, exports, and federal authorities spending that had been partly offset by decreases in residential mounted funding and personal stock funding. Imports decreased (desk 2).
Present-dollar GDP elevated 6.3 p.c, or $1.61 trillion, in 2023 to a degree of $27.36 trillion, in contrast with a rise of 9.1 p.c, or $2.15 trillion, in 2022 (tables 1 and three).
The worth index for gross home purchases elevated 3.4 p.c in 2023, in contrast with a rise of 6.8 p.c in 2022 (desk 4). The PCE worth index elevated 3.7 p.c, in contrast with a rise of 6.5 p.c. Excluding meals and power costs, the PCE worth index elevated 4.1 p.c, in contrast with a rise of 5.2 p.c.
Measured from the fourth quarter of 2022 to the fourth quarter of 2023, actual GDP elevated 3.1 p.c in the course of the interval (desk 5), in contrast with a rise of 0.7 p.c from the fourth quarter of 2021 to the fourth quarter of 2022.
The value index for gross home purchases, as measured from the fourth quarter of 2022 to the fourth quarter of 2023, elevated 2.4 p.c, in contrast with a rise of 6.2 p.c from the fourth quarter of 2021 to the fourth quarter of 2022. The PCE worth index elevated 2.8 p.c, in contrast with a rise of 5.9 p.c from the fourth quarter of 2021 to the fourth quarter of 2022. Excluding meals and power, the PCE worth index elevated 3.2 p.c, in contrast with a rise of 5.1 p.c.
Advance Estimate | Second Estimate | |
---|---|---|
(P.c change from 2022 annual degree to 2023 annual degree) | ||
Actual GDP | 2.5 | 2.5 |
Present-dollar GDP | 6.3 | 6.3 |
Gross home purchases worth index | 3.4 | 3.4 |
PCE worth index | 3.7 | 3.7 |
PCE worth index excluding meals and power | 4.1 | 4.1 |
(P.c change from fourth quarter 2022 to fourth quarter 2023) | ||
Actual GDP | 3.1 | 3.1 |
Gross home purchases worth index | 2.4 | 2.4 |
PCE worth index | 2.7 | 2.8 |
PCE worth index excluding meals and power | 3.2 | 3.2 |
* * *
Subsequent launch, March 28, 2024, at 8:30 a.m. EDT
Gross Home Product (Third Estimate)
Company Earnings
Gross Home Product by Trade
Fourth Quarter 2023 and Yr 2023
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